tech demos · sealed records
The sealed records, for anyone to check
Every one of our demos follows the same rule: the formulas, the thresholds and the parameters are written down and sealed before looking at the exam, so they cannot be adjusted afterwards to make the result look good. This page publishes those records exactly as they were sealed, so anyone can download them and check them.
Each demo cites its fingerprint. The fingerprint is the hash of the commit that froze the record in our working repository (the repository is private; the full hash and the sealed files are published here). Where an OpenTimestamps seal exists as well, the age is independently verifiable against the Bitcoin blockchain: nobody, ourselves included, can backdate a seal.
How to verify an OTS seal, in short: download the document and its .ots file, install the client (pip install opentimestamps-client) and run ots verify <file>.ots. The step by step, caveats included, is in the COMO-VERIFICAR.md of the cars demo.
Anticipating car recalls by reading driver complaints
commit hash: 6fe218fe5c184d65e7146a27144c2832a2e7ba97
The rules, the thresholds and the engine's artifacts (vectorizer, family taxonomy, calibration) were frozen before opening the 2015-2024 test. The manifest lists the sha256 of every artifact. In addition, four envelopes with bets on the future were sealed by hash: only their fingerprints are published; each envelope is opened only if its prediction comes true.
- params.json · the engine's frozen parameters
- MANIFEST.sha256 · sha256 manifest of every frozen artifact
- HASHES.txt · the fingerprints of the four sealed envelopes
- HASHES.txt.ots · OpenTimestamps seal of HASHES.txt, anchored in Bitcoin
- COMO-VERIFICAR.md · how to verify the seal, step by step (in Spanish)
Predicting which files a fix will touch before it's written
commit hash: 769c68f45fe3e24a7bb7ea616f5f464ae2d81202
The hyperparameters were chosen on internal 2019 and 2020 cuts and were frozen before touching the 2021-2024 exam. sha256 of the published file: 73e304c99cc67ffb8abaf7991b0b8010e3059e48cef650720199800999e168db.
- params.json · the frozen hyperparameters
Flagging which changes deserve a second look before merging
commit hash: 42ad6d7a06c55cf5aeab3f0fc6c2e846c1a1abfd
The full model (coefficients, standardizer, isotonic calibration and threshold) was frozen before opening the 2021-2024 test and the transfer to Kubernetes. sha256 of the published file: dabb1d0fe99ccd6585d21030c3203545b18ab517e23379498a3ab42f65694038.
- params.json · the frozen model, coefficients included
Reading a company's code before buying it
commit hash: 15bcb3af0aaa5b1eeca1f3952615cb785518ea59
The pre-registration fixes the ten cases, their cut-off dates, the mechanical definition of the outcome (D1-D3), the axes of the map and the caveats, before computing any signal. The published file includes an erratum added after sealing (a date transcribed wrongly inside a parenthesis), visible in the text itself.
- pre-registro-mapa-9-casos.md · the full pre-registration, readable
Predicting the discount and the no-bids in public procurement
Three pre-registrations, one per experiment, sealed with OpenTimestamps and anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain before running any model: the discount and the no-bids, the tender radar by company, and who wins each contract. Each document fixes thresholds, success bars and abstention rules; the .ots files prove their age without trusting us.
- pre-registro-entrega-1.md · the discount and the no-bids: the pre-registration
- pre-registro-entrega-1.md.ots · its OTS seal
- pre-registro-entrega-2.md · the tender radar by company: the pre-registration
- pre-registro-entrega-2.md.ots · its OTS seal
- pre-registro-entrega-3.md · who wins each contract: the pre-registration
- pre-registro-entrega-3.md.ots · its OTS seal
The seals prove the rules existed before the exam; they do not prove the rules were any good. That part is judged by reading each demo, with its results and its caveats.